Picks for UFC Fight Night: Nogueira Vs. Davis

Posted: March 23, 2011 in UFC

Picks for UFC Fight Night Nogera Vs. Davis

This card comes just one week behind the last fight, which is a little rushed in my opinion, but I’ll take it. It was originally Nogera Vs. Ortiz, but this is a better fight. Ortiz isn’t suited for much anymore other than testing a legit contender’s ability to get off of his back. I don’t know if Mr. Wonderful Phil Davis is a real contender or not, but this fight means more watching Tito fight a guy who the audience thinks is Minitauro fighting down a weight class. My picks:

Preliminary Bouts:

Nik Lentz will beat Waylon Lowe in a boring ass wrestling match at 155 lbs. Nobody will or should care. These guys aren’t awful, but I don’t want to see either on a main card. Lentz might get better. Lowe won’t. These guys are Jake Shields, only without all the charisma.

Aaron Simpson is an exciting, if aging, fighter at 185 lbs. who’s coming off of two tough losses. I think he’ll beat “Super” Mario Miranda because he’s likely fighting for his spot in the company, and Miranda’s still adjusting to the UFC pressure and pace. 3rd round TKO.

Johny Hendricks will beat TJ Waldberger at Welterweight. Hendricks is coming off his first loss, but the Happy Beard Guy will get back to his winning ways after stopping Waldberger in the first. Waldberger’s good, and young, but he doesn’t train with anybody, and he can’t fight with top tier fighters in the cage until he does so in the gym.

Two Monsters fight at Heavyweight. 6’7”Sean McCorkle and 6’6”Christian Morecraft. Both men’s only losses come from Stefan Struve, a fighter I’m not really sold on. Morecraft looked better in those fights, but McCorkle’s in better shape. The leaner McCorkle should be able to outpace Morecraft at the end and either score a submission or a sloppy TKO by exhaustion in round 2 or 3.

Michael McDonald should defeat newcomer Figueroa at Bantamweight, as Figueroa’s taking the fight on short notice, and isn‘t used to the big league fight yet.

John Hathaway over Kris McCray at 170 lbs. I always pick McCray, but I’m just realizing it’s because Looks tough, not because he Is tough. He’s lost his last two, and will be bringing it hard this fight, but Hathaway’s handled the wrestling assault of Diego Sanchez and came out on top. I think he’ll do the same to the 1-dimensional McCray.

Jon Madsen will knock out Mike Russow in a sloppy wrestling match at Heavyweight. Both guys have good records but haven’t really beaten anyone. Both can hit really hard. Neither have much of a gas tank. I’m picking Madsen because he’s not a cop.

“Bruce Leeroy” Alex Caceres will beat Mackens Semerzier at Featherweight. Caceres isn’t great, but he’s marketable, and Dana’s going to feed him this guy who’s lost his last three as a means to make Leeroy more appealing to fight fans. Also, Semerzier’s nickname is “Da Menace.” I hate anybody who misspells their name on purpose.

Main Card:

Leonard Garcia will sort-of-beat Jung Chan-Sung again at Featherweight. This rematch is an awful first fight for a Main Card! Garcia’s last 6 fights have been split decisions. Jung’s an Asian grappler. This will be drab and a waste of TV Space. Garcia will get a not-win. Fans will give a not-shit.

Amir Sadollah should beat the always exciting but frequently careless Damarques Johnson at Welterweight. Sadollah’s a fan favorite, and Johnson always brings it, but the loser of this fight should probably get the ax, as neither is showing signs of moving up in their division.

Dan Hardy Vs. Anthony Johnson is the most promising fight on this card. Two exciting fighters coming off of tough loses. I’m siding with the more athletic Johnson, but I would not discount the Brit Striker. I’m pulling for Hardy, because I like his style, and he has the best post-loss interview ever, but I don’t think he can defend the takedowns of Johnson, who’s long and fast. Johnson by Decision. If Johnson does finish Hardy on the ground, it’ll not only be a testament to his skill, but also an illustration of how GSP is either a lazy or cowardly fighter for not doing the same.

Main Event:

Mr. Wonderful beats up the Clint Eastwood impersonator. The Nogueira Bros. Are overrated. All of the Pride guys, with the notable exceptions of Rampage and Anderson Silva are overrated. This is a great chance for Davis to get a meaningful win (especially since most fans will think it‘s over a former Heavyweight champ, not his little brother). A knock out would be great, but those Brazilian noggins are lined with Kevlar, look for a decision.

Submission of the Night: McCorkle

Knock out of the Night: I’m going against my earlier prediction, but I’ll say the winner of Hardy/Johnson.

Fight of the Night: Sadollah Vs. Johnson

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