UFC 130 predictions

Posted: May 24, 2011 in UFC

 I didn’t get to write fight picks for the last card, and it really messed with my enjoying the fights. You know what else prevented me from enjoying the last fight? GSP not finishing another opponent. 25 minutes of watching GSP not win is becoming a staple of the UFC, and I’m not buying it. I will watch Lyoto Machida do Crane Kicks all day though, thanks for saving that suck card Steven Seagal.

This upcoming fight has no Titles on the line, but 130 still looks more exciting than 129, mostly because the guys on this card like to fight… not show off how well they can not win.

First of all, it’s too bad about Frankie Edgar and Gray “TrampStamp” Maynard both got hurt. Their last fight was awesome, and would love to see some resolution. For the record, I’d have given the fight to Edgar, but a Draw is a proper decision and I’m glad to see the call. They need to fight again, and I’ll certainly tune in to watch these two throw down… my early prediction is Maynard.

As for the actual fights;

Quinton Jackson Vs. Matt Hamill (205)

I like Quinton “Rampage” Jackson over Matt “The Hamma” Hamma. Matt Hamill is on a 2 fight win streak (they say 5, but he was getting his ass beat before they DQ’d Jon Jones for elbows.) I thought Rampage was done after the Rashad Evans fallout and subsequent retirement, but now the man’s back, and he’ll beat Hamill. Hamill’s tough, but his style is fairly methodical, and certainly not flashy. He might take Rampage down, but it’ll never look like he’s doing anything while he’s down there. He doesn’t have the power to knock Jackson out, and I don’t think he’s exciting enough to win over the judges. Meanwhile Rampage has that intensity that when he’s pushing, it always looks like he’s about to end it. Whether or not it’s the right decision, it’ll be Rampage by decision.

Frank Mir Vs. Roy Nelson (270)

I’m going to pick Frank Mir, but I’m hoping for Roy “Big Belly” Nelson. I love Nelson. He’s a throwback tough guy and I love watching him. Nelson is The Guy to test new promising fighters against, as he has hands that can knock them out, and a ground game that’s infuriating, but I don’t think he’s got the skill set to upset the former Heavyweight Champ. He does pose an interesting challenge though, as his Jiu-Jitsu is deceptive, and might cancel out Mir’s strongest asset. This is the fight I’m most interested in. I’m picking a late round stoppage by Mir.

Stefan Struve Vs. Travis Browne (270)

In another good Heavyweight Bout, I’m looking for newcomer Travis Browne to knock out Stefan Struve. Struve is the 6’11” 23 year old who shocked people by knocking out his last two opponents. Browne’s an undefeated new guy who’s last showing was a tie against Cheick Kongo. Struve’s really coming along and looks to become an impressive fighter, and his monster frame certainly leads to some interesting scenarios, but his chin is a bit suspect, and knock-out’s are Browne’s forte. Browne’s coming off of a tie that probably should have been a win, and he’s going to be looking to finish this fight and leave it out of the judge’s decision. So he’ll be throwing hands hard and heavy. Also… people just like punching tall guys. It’s neat. Browne by knockout in the first.

Thiago Alves Vs. Rick Story (170)

Thiago Alves Vs. Rick Story is a hard fight to call at Welterweight. Alves looked dynamite in his last outing, but has shown a weakness against wrestling, and that’s Story’s primary strength. Story is really just a wrestler, but he’s beaten a few other good “just wrestlers” and called out Alves after his last showing. Story’s looking to grab a win over a striker to impress the fans, and I think he’ll do it. Alves has a history of not making weight, and if this cut’s been hard for him… the fights over, Story will simply hold him down for 15 minutes. I’m hoping Story looking to make a name for himself will lead to some exciting exchanges. Story by decision.

Brian Stann Vs Jorge Santiago (I85)

Brian Stann should win against Jorge Santiago at Middleweight. Santiago is a making the jump to the UFC from Sengoku, and I think Stann’s comfort from already having been under the UFC lights will give him the advantage here. Santiago is a legit fighter, with some serious wins over good guys, but not under the same pressure that millions watching brings. Stann will get a 2nd round stoppage. These two are both Studs from other organizations, and I hope to see them both succeed here.

Undercard:

Demetrius Johnson Vs. Miguel Torres (135)

Demetrius Johnson will beat Miguel Torres at Bantamweight. Tiny Wrestling beats Tiny Jiu-Jitsu.

Tim Boetsch Vs. Kendall Grove (185)

Tim Boetsch is dropping down to Middleweight to beat up Kendall Grove. Grove looks fun with his goofy long frame, and he keeps people busy for a while until they figure out how to navigate past it. But he hasn’t been fighting well for a while, and has never been much more than a novelty. If Boetsch can handle the weight drop he could make some waves in this new division. He has solid wins against some bigger fighters, and I’m looking forward to seeing what he can do. He’ll start with a submission on “Da Spyder.” This might not be perfectly objective… I hate anybody who intentionally spells their name wrong. “Da DooshBag” will tap.

Prelims:

Gleison Tibau Vs. Rafeallo (155)

Gleison Tibau should beat Rafeallo Oliveira at Lightweight. Rafeallo is making his return to the UFC on short notice, replacing an injured Cody McKenzie. This should be an exciting BJJ showing, but Oliveira hasn’t had the time to prepare for the fight and I think Tibau will take a decision.

Michael McDonald Vs. Chris Cariaso (135)

20 year old Michael McDonald will make a statement at Bantamweight by beating Chris Cariaso. Both of this guys are fun to watch, but I think McDonald’s ground game is stronger than Cariaso’s. He’ll win by decision.

Renan Barao Vs. Cole Escovedo

Renan Barao over Cole Escovedo at Bantamweight. I’m technically picking an upset here, and I shouldn’t be. Barao’s tough as nails and hasn’t lost since his first fight. I think people just think little guys named Cole are tough. He is… but he’ll get TKO’d by Barao.

Fight of the Night: Story Vs. Alves (I’m hoping Mir Vs. Nelson)

Knock out of the Night: Travis Browne

Submission of the Night: Boetsch.

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Comments
  1. joemama says:

    All I gotta say is Roy Nelson stoood toe to toe with JDS for 3 rounds and took everything he had. Something I don’t think Mir could do… everything else is reasonable 🙂

    • DJ Dangler says:

      I would totally agree with that statement. Dos Santos would wreck Mir, and he could not put “Big Belly” down. Nelson is super tough, but I don’t think he’ll be able to keep pressure up enough to beat Mir. I hope so, but I doubt it. I love Nelson: fat guy that Dana doesn’t want to win, is my favorite character. I hope he upsets Mir… but I don’t know how he’ll do it. Mir’s boxing isn’t bad, and his ground game is too good for Nelson to put himself in that “Big Brother” position he used to beat up folks on TUF. I’m excited about this fight… more than I should be. I hope you’re right.

  2. joemama says:

    Don’t underestimate Nelsons ground game, watch some of his pre UFC fights this guy is a high level BJJ black belt who knows how to use his body against his opponent. Mir could be playing into a trap. Honestly, I think Mir has his best chance of winning keeping it standing and trying to outstrike him for a decision. Call me crazy

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