UFC 128 Predictions

Posted: March 18, 2011 in UFC

UFC 128 is this weekend. Here are my quik piks for the card. (I ain’t got time for the letter “c” bitches)

Prelims:

Nick Catone is a guy with a great contract and a lousy record who usually fights at 185 lbs. He’ll TKO Constantinos Philippou, who’s usually a 205 lbs fighter, at a catch weight of 195.  People fight best at their natural weight. Philippou will struggle with the cut, and Catone will come in healthier and win.

The other prelims are really little guys I don’t know. I like;

Koch over Assuncao at 135lbs

Benavidez over Loveland at 145lbs.

Both of these fights do matter in the new divisions, and I like all four guys. I just haven’t seen enough of them to make informed picks. I’m hoping at least one of these will get aired during the Main Card to get the new weights some exposure.

The Facebook Fights look to be 2 of the best fights of the night.

Kurt Pelligrino over Gleison Tibau at Lightweight. Both guys are solid fighters coming off of loses to strong 155lbers, (Sotiropoulos and Jim Miller respectively.)Their ground skills should make for good ground exchanges that ultimately cancel each other out, and Pelligrino will be better at landing strikes during the times on their feet. It’ll be a decision, but an exciting fight.

Mike Pyle will submit Ricardo Almeida at 170lbs. Almeida is super tough, but Pyle’s a guy that will make some waves in the UFC. He fought Rampage Jackson to a draw in both fighters’ debuts, even though he gave up 30 lbs, and he’s tapped John Fitch. I think he’s stronger than Almeida, and that really matters when two guys strengths are both BJJ.

Prelims:

Lightweight Edson Barboza will remain undefeated when he beats Anthony Njokuani. Barboza’s a Brazilian kick boxer who’s worn out his last two opponents legs with kicks. I have no reason to think he won’t do the same against Njokuani, who’s predominantly a standing striker. If it goes to the ground, he’s a Brazilian. You ever heard of Kenyan Jiu-Jitsu? Me either.

Elliot Marshal returns to the UFC after an unusual firing, and he’ll beat Luiz Cain. Marshal was a TUF fighter who won a few UFC fights after the show and then got the boot after loosing to the very good Vladimir Matyushenko. He’s stayed fighting regularly and dominated in other leagues. Luiz Cain has an awesome name, but has looked terrible in his last two fights. Marshal will come out hard in his return and win this Light Heavyweight bout with a TKO from ground strikes.

Main Card:

Brandon Schaub will Knock Out Mirko CroCop. CroCop isn’t good any more. CroCop’s that German guy from Mike Tyson’s PunchOut: “I used to Train Soldiers.” Yeah, well, now you get knocked out by anybody who’s serious about fighting. Schaub will beat him, and it won’t matter. Dana will put him on the next card knocking out Chris Tuchscherer or some other garbage fighter because Dana White carved his and Mirko’s initials together in a tree at summer camp. 

Dan Miller will upset Nate Marquardt at 185 lbs. Both of these guys were promising dudes who’ve had bumpy stretches recently. Both got beat by cheater and sneak thief Chael Sonnen. Marquardt’s better on his feet, but I don’t think it’ll stay there too long, as neither are great at stopping take downs. Miller will out work Marquardt who’s super huge frame gets tired in later rounds. Also, Miller’s going to really bring it this fight, because his brother’s on the card. When two brothers are fighting at the same place, they’re vicariously competing against each other, and nothing’s better than watching two brothers go at it. They fight harder than their bodies really can. It’ll earn him a decision. (I am least confident about his pick, but siding with favorites seems cowardly.)

Jim Miller will beat Kamal Shalorus at 155 lbs. He’ll have the brother thing going on too, but he won’t need it. He’s just a better fighter than Shalorus. Shalorus is undefeated, and will be great, but Miller is his toughest challenge yet and I don’t think he’s up for it. I’ve said before, if Joe Miller had a more interesting name, he’d already have had a title shot. This is a terrible fight for Miller. He’s fighting an undefeated, very strong, unknown. If he looses he’ll get burried behind less deserving lightweights, (Clay Guida, Mac Danzig, Kenny Florian) and if he wins nobody will realize he just beat a stud. Whoever wins this fight is in immediate consideration for a title fight.

Eddie Wineland will beat Urijah Faber at Bantamweight in what should be one of the most exciting fights of the night. Urijah Faber is Always fun to watch, but I think his championship days are over. If he can no longer get it done at 135, he can’t get it done at 145. A former Featherweight Champion fights a Former Bantamweight Champion At Bantamweight, it only makes sense to bet on the one who’s fighting where he belongs.

In the Light Heavyweight Championship Jon “Bones” Jones will take the title from Mauricio “Shogun“ Rua. Jon “Bones” Jones is young, and this is his first title fight, but if he can overcome the distractions and pressure, he can beat Rua. Rua is stronger, more experienced, and quite frankly just Meaner than anybody Jones has faced, but Rua is a fighter who’s best wins have come against heavyweights and bigger, more methodical, fighters. The speed and frenetic wrestling of Jones will overwhelm Rua. The fight will hinge on Jones being able to score a takedown. The fight probably won’t end on the ground, but if Jones can prove he can land a takedown on Shogun, Shogun will have to respect it all night, and he won’t be able to chop down Jones with his impossibly powerful punches and kicks. I think Jones will finish this fight, but if he doesn’t, he will push the pace enough to win the decision. Even though he doesn’t have experience in 5 round fights… neither does Rua (only going there once, and losing.) Jones by TKO.

I’ve heard Rashad Evans, who Jones is replacing, has said that if Jones wins, he won’t challenge for the belt. 

Awesome.

Rashad makes more complaints outside of the cage than statements in it, and I’d love to see him willingly take himself out of title contention for the rest of his career. He didn’t deserve this shot, and he doesn’t deserve one when he comes back, regardless of who the champ is.

Rashad Evans is a cunt. A crybaby stall-artist cunt. (hey, it looks like I did in fact have time for the letter “c”.)

Fight of the Night: Faber Vs. Wineland

Knock Out of the Night: Schaub

Submission of the Night: Mike Pyle

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Comments
  1. Binkley says:

    I had heard that Rashad was actually going to leave Greg Jackson’s camp and fight “Bones” no matter what. Also, I think there is a factor of Jones taking the fight late notice. Hua is a monster, as well as Jones, and I’m not saying I don’t agree with you, but there is definitely the “late announcement” factor to Jones.

    • DJ Dangler says:

      That would be nice if Rashad chose to fight, but I doubt he will. He’s a politician and a cherry picker. Neither Shogun or Jones is a good match up for him, so he’ll dick around until there’s a better match-up, against a slower style fighter for the belt. There is the “Late Announcement” factor working against Jones… but it’s not like he hasn’t been training, and I think short notice is better than time off. Jones is also at a stage in his career where he’s not adapting to styles to beat people, he’s imposing his on there’s. Shogun is a brutal fighter, and Jones hasn’t been hit as hard as Shogun will hit him, but I don’t think Shogun has the athleticism to catch him Or the ring savvy to cut him off. Shogun hasn’t really been that good. What’s he done in the UFC? Knocked out Machida, HARD, I know. But that’s it. He lost to Forrest Griffen, he eeked out a win against Old Man Coleman, knocked out Liddel, who, let’s face it, isn’t that hard to knock out anymore, and then immediately got put into a title fight against a guy. Dana White’s got an inferriority complex regarding the Pride Guys. CroCop, W. Silva, Shogun. It might be because he banks on their overseas name recognition to draw ratings, but it’s not because they’re just that good.

  2. jason says:

    One the highlights of my honeymoon was watching Machida KO Evans in Vegas… aaaahhhh, I would love to see evqns fight jones and get his face broken.

    As far as your picks, I think you nailed it on the head. All except for the Marquardt fight. I think Nate needs to win this fight or his UFC career could be in jeopardy. With that motivation I think he will come in with a sense of urgency and win the fight by TKO ,referee stoppage due to strikes. We will see though

    • DJ Dangler says:

      I haven’t been that impressed with Marquardt for a while. Really, since I saw Chael Sonnen whoop his ass. I know Chael did the same thing to the greatest 185 lbs fighter in the world, And I know he’s a cheater, but strength is Marquardt’s game, and it got upended. I’m starting to think he was overhyped. He should beat Miller. But if I’m going to pick an upset, I’m picking that one. This card has some great fights on it. I’m looking forward to it.

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